Ebron Long Term Deal looming?

Discussion in 'Detroit Lions Blitz' started by goldenlions, May 16, 2017.

  1. goldenlions International Playboy



    Cocky attitude, but I'd like to see him step up this year to deserve such talk. And I wouldn't be against it. I like BQs approach.
  2. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    Ebron improves a little every year. If he improves again this year, he'll be a bona fide elite player. He has elite athleticism, especially for his size. He's a load to cover. Takes training seriously. Gym rat.

    If he doesn't improve or God forbid takes a step back, then his days will be numbered.
  3. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    If he does not decrease his drop rate and improve his blocking, he will be gone. His 5th year option is guaranteed for injury only. Personally, I don't think Ebron will improve. 4 years in college he had a 11.4 percent drop rate. 3 years on the Lions and the guy has never had a drop rate below 7 percent. 2014 = 8.5 percent drop rate, 2015 = 7.1 percent drop rate, 2016 = 8.2 percent drop rate. Does not block for shit and does not care! Lions are better off without him.

    Asked if Ebron could learn to catch the football better, Bradshaw said: "You can work on catching for sure, and improve it. Definitely can learn to catch -- but wide open (drops)? Then he makes a one-handed catch? Got to be able to count on these guys. Have to be able to make big plays in big situations and big games, and if you can't do that, you can't play. Go play somewhere else."
  4. Felix True Fan

    Weird:

    “But he just keeps getting better. He keeps working at it and that’s what he has to do.”
    Ebron has yet to play 16 games in a season for the Lions, playing between 13 and 14 games each year. He set career-highs last year in receptions (61) and yards (711), but struggled to get in the end zone with only one touchdown.
    He has also improved as a blocker and matured as one of the players Matthew Stafford can count on. Ebron’s drop rate went from 10.1 percent in 2015 to 5.8 percent in 2016 even as he was targeted 17 more times and had a higher percentage of targets per route run and receptions per route run.
    Ebron did this despite fighting through multiple injuries to his ankle and knee.
    Still, the Lions waited essentially until the deadline to pick up Ebron’s option, with general manager Bob Quinn saying he made the decision a week prior to the deadline. When asked Friday why the Lions waited until so close to the deadline to decide on Ebron, Caldwell said the Lions work with the timeline they choose to.
    “That’s your timeline. What we work with is the timeline we work with,” Caldwell said. “We look at the situation, we iron it out, we see what we’re going to do and we take our time. We make sure we’re thorough.”
  5. TheDane Active Member

    What the O really needs is to have complimentary players at WR, RB and TE positions. They did a good job shoring up TE with keeping Ebron to be a receiving TE, a blocking TE in Darren Fells, and some competition with 4th round draft choice Michael Roberts. Cole Wick is also a guy to watch in camp who looked good last year and if healthy will hopefully offer some PS depth. Last season we literally had times when we had no option at TE because of injuries, this should really shore it up. Being able to run 2 TE formations also gives us something we have never had in recent memory.

    WR may or may not be an issue. We lost Boldin who had 4 receptions a game, but he averaged only 8.7 yards per reception. Getting a healthy Ebron with some backup depth is likely to ease that. Having a healthy Riddick is also likely to ease that. It means less pressure for Golladay who I think wins the #3 spot easily and may be moved to the outside with Tate moving into the slot. I'm so so on the rest of the depth, Billingsley and Jones, but at least they have been on our roster and if we have any injuries we shouldn't have to sign guys off the street. The starters do represent different skill sets and sizes though, and this is what I meant with re to having complimentary players.

    At RB we have complimentary players, different sizes and skill sets, the only problem is that they decided to let this historically bad group remain in tact. AA is an NFL player, Riddick is a 3rd down back but I think all of us who understand the game know what will happen if AA goes down, we simply don't have the NFL depth at this position that we have at TE and WR and will suffer once again. Hopefully Zenner or Washington can be "serviceable", we need a complimentary player with their skill set to round out the group. Counting on AA to be a lead back is just asking for it. I was right about it last year before he ever got hurt, now that he has been hurt going back to that well after seeing what happened when he went down is really bad judgement. Not Chicago Bears draft bad judgement, but bad judgement never-the-less.

    In the end I think we should be improved, maybe even greatly improved if Marvin Jones can get back to form that he exhibited in the early part of last season. I feel best about what they did at TE, we needed a blocking TE and depth and they did that with FA and the draft. We are way more complete going into this season on O than last year and that is a good thing. Although Ebrons pay is high, the group isn't pulling down much more than most teams and we are way more well rounded. Looking forward to June 1st cuts to see what's there at WR and RB.
  6. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club


    Why do you feel that we needed a blocking Tight End? Why was that important?

    You also didn't say anything about the offensive line. Do you not see Wagner as an upgrade over Reiff? And if so, what do you believe to be the significance ?
  7. lionsmack Right down the middle

    I don't see why anyone gives a shit about his blocking. That's not what he's out there for.

    He'll never be worth the 10th overall pick. And no, I wouldn't give him a long term deal till we see more improvement out of him this year. More touchdowns and first downs, to be precise.

    If he can do something close to what Boldin did last year, then give him a fair contract going forward. If not, who cares if he leaves in FA because it isn't that hard to replace 60 catches, 700 yards and 1 TD.
  8. Blaming Barry Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but you want your pass catching TE to at least have some blocking ability because unless he is Gronk or Jimmy Graham in his prime he is more of a liability because it really limits the playbook and makes you more predictable.
  9. TheDane Active Member

    I actually see us going to some 2 TE sets this season with the loss of Boldin. Ebron has gone from 13 games and 25 receptions in his first season to 13 games and 61 receptions last season. Last year when he went down we didn't have an NFL TE on the team. We have an NFL blocking TE on the team now, so barring injuries we are in a decent place. We'll see but it's way better than how we started last season.
  10. badnews3123 Well-Known Member

    Ebron is basically an oversized slot WR. He's TE on the books. He can play in-line and block a little, but shouldn't be there much. He was asked to do a lot of it last year because of personnel issues. I don't think you see him in line much this season with addition of Fells and Roberts.
  11. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Well said BB, I totally agree.

    People justify poor play "as good" by looking at a player's positive attributes. If we look at his positives, then we have to look at his negatives also. Ebron is half a of TE, which makes him mediocre at best. He is not fast enough to be a WR so his match up is important (e.g. LB assigned). He drops the ball, especially in big games at big moments, and he does not block well. In retrospect, at least Pickweblew could block. Our capability to run outside was drastically reduced in 2016 without Pickweblew and Ebron as the starting TE. Here is Football Outsiders ranking for OLs. Pay particular attention to the Left and Right end runs. The TE is instrumental for success on these runs.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

    In 2016, the Lions were 30th ranked for runs to the outside, meaning the TEs (Ebron) was getting his ass kicked when run blocking. As this site allows, Please refer to the 2015 and 2014 season run blocking rankings for comparison.

    Here is what we know about Ebron!

    In our playoff loss to Seattle, Ebron dropped 2 passes on 3rd down that were beautifully thrown right into his hands. Add in his poor run blocking and Ebron was probably responsible for at least 3 maybe 4 of the 9 Lion's Offensive drives failing. I can't justify this type of poor play at all. Don't like him as a player and don't want him. This is an ultimatum year for Ebron, he is either put up or shut up.
  12. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Are you serious? You never heard of stretching the field horizontally? A good blocking TE is instrumental for End Runs.


    Run Blocking Reiff and Wagner are about the same. Pass blocking Wagner beats Rieff by a mile. So yes, Wagner is a upgrade. Stafford is happy, should take fewer hits.

    I would also like to add;

    For Run Blocking Warford beats Lang. For Pass Blocking Lang beats Warford. Makes them about even with Lang as a slight upgrade.

    In summary, don't expect huge run blocked holes on the right side of the OL, because it is not going to happen. Therefore a blocking TE is more important than ever.
  13. millenbacker !! JUST BREW IT !!

    Reiff was horrible atvrun blocking. When he got hurt our run games improved. He came back and it went back to bad on his side of the line. Glad Reiff is gone.
  14. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    It sounds like you're acknowledging the importance of blocking in the run game, and that the Lions were one of the worst in the league in that area.

    Just curious ... how many extra yards do you think a team could average if they had better blocking, particularly from the tight ends on the outside runs? How much extra do you think your typical RB could average on a per-carry basis with better blocking?

    What are you basing this on? What are your thoughts on the PFF numbers?

    PFF Numbers, 2016:
    Reiff: 67.5 overall, 68.7 Pass, 57.4 Run
    Wagner: 84.5 overall, 87.8 Pass, 69.9 Run

    Larry Warford: 81.5 overall, 82.4 Pass, 81.3 Run
    T.J. Lang: 87.0 overall, 92.9 Pass, 76.9 Run

    That seems about right. My original question was directed at theDane, but what I was interested in were thoughts on the upgrade in the run blocking. Lang doesn't appear to be what you'd call a notable downgrade in that department. Whereas Wagner could represent a significant upgrade.

    How much of an impact do you think improved run-blocking makes? If you look at our current stable of backs, they were mostly in the range of 3.8 and 3.9 yards per carry in 2016 behind shitty blocking. With improved run blocking at Right Tackle and Tight End, how much of an increase from that do you think we can expect? Could that push them in to the 4.0 to 4.4 range?
  15. Huntermsu Mr. Negativity

    They have Stafford and Ansah to resign I have to question if it's wise to spend on Ebron when you have those two contracts to sort out.

    With Ebron being basically a big slower than average WR I have to question how this offense intends to function with a OL that is on paper top 10, might they go to more heavy formations to try to take advantage of most of the NFL moving to five DB base packages, I don't know if many teams have a good answer if a team with a good OL puts in a good FB like Burton and a good run blocker like Fells, in other words might the role of WR/TE tweener be less valuable to a team that can line up like the Lions can on paper.
  16. badnews3123 Well-Known Member

    They have plenty of money to spend if they want to sign Ebron.

    The potential upgrade on the OL to me has more to do with fit. I don't think standing alone Wagner and Lang are a big step up from Reiff and Warford, but I do think they fit better with what the offense seems to call for from the OL. They're both more athletic lineman, while Reiff/Warford are more of grinders who probably fit best in a more power based scheme.
  17. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club


    You seriously think Wagner isn't a significant step up from Reiff?

    I see a lot of people saying this on multiple message boards. And I'm starting to think it's another one of those things where if enough people say it, then it becomes true by way of just saying it enough times.

    When you re-watch the botched plays in slo-mo, he and Tomlinson are usually the guys getting blown up. He was a weak link and the Vikings were idiots for giving him that contract.
  18. badnews3123 Well-Known Member

    Step-up, yes. Significant, no.
  19. Felix True Fan

    Not sure how we would know yet...cant imagine anyone here really watched that many Ravens games....
  20. millenbacker !! JUST BREW IT !!

    If they sign Ebron long term I've lost all faith in management.
  21. millenbacker !! JUST BREW IT !!

    Reiff is garbage. He was a mistake from the get go for the lions. Minnesota isexcellent at judging defensive talent and brain dead at judging offensive talent. They will regret Reiff quickly.
  22. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    Average would be a "significant" step up from Reiff.
  23. Huntermsu Mr. Negativity

    Reiff can play average at LT and in the NFL that is valuable, Reiff isn't as good at RT IMO so it was logical to let him go for Wagner, I think Reiff will do ok for the Vikings.
  24. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    I have always acknowledged the importance of blocking the run game.


    I know I have said this before, but an average OL combined with an average NFL RB will gain 4.0 yards/carry in the NFL. Hopefully this year we can get to average at least, it will help the Offense tremendously.

    However, I would like to draw your attention to the Second Level and Open Field categories within the Football Outsiders chart posted above. These yards are mostly contributed to the RB and WR and TE downfield blocking.

    1. Second Level Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries. We were ranked 22nd, below average.

    2. Open Field Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries. We were ranked 27th, very poor.

    I think these two categories probably best describes what I call "the RB's capability to create yardage on their own". As you can see we did not do well in these two categories. Thus the bitching for a better RB to compliment Abdullah.
  25. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club



    Alright, since we're on football outsiders, I'm also interested in this:

    Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

    We were 29. Really bad.

    When you look at your stats in context with the stuffed ranking ... it suggests the number of zero or negative yardage plays due to the play being blown up in the backfield ... is bringing down those other averages.

    The PFF stats I pointed to in the other thread have Zenner and Riddick ranked 13th and 18th in the league respectively in yards after first contact. Combine that with the stuffed percentage, and the picture is pretty clear. Our backs are getting stuffed in the backfield, and it ain't their fault. :D

    Those "bitching" for the better RB to compliment Abdullah is fine. People have that right to bitch for whatever they want to bitch for. But it's important to keep in mind that the bitching is emotionally driven, not data-driven. None of the data backs up their argument. Quinn is a data-driven guy, and that's why the Lions have largely stayed put with their RBs, opting instead to focus on the blocking. In particular, as you so aptly pointed out ... the outside blocking with their tackles and Tight Ends -- i.e. Wagner, Fells, and Roberts. Those three players were signed or drafted for a very specific purpose -- to upgrade the running game.

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