Like the picks

Discussion in 'Detroit Lions Blitz' started by millenbacker, Apr 29, 2017.

  1. badnews3123 Well-Known Member

    I'm not sure how you are deducting that that is when he hurt his foot. But it's hilarious you are saying he hurt his foot breaking a tackle while saying he has difficulty running through contact, which is what he did in this situation and gained another 10+ yards after breaking the tackle.

    And do I need to go through and list RB's that have had success at his size? I've done it once before, I'm sure it's still floating around. He's 5'9 205, he's really not that small. And saying he can't carry it 20 times a game isn't some amazing argument, there's a small handful of guys in the league that carry the ball that much.
  2. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    What, to you, constitutes an "NFL caliber Running Back?" What is the criteria that one must meet in order to be considered "NFL caliber" at the RB position?
  3. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    Okay, so he missed a game and some off-season workouts. This is very different from your earlier assertion that he was injured "2 years in a row" and "hasn't been healthy since becoming a Lion."

    I'm assuming you know there is a discrepancy here. Why is this? Did you simply make an error? Exaggeration to make a point? Or did you remember the situation wrong? I'm just curious is all.

    Another thing I'm wondering about, and since you're good with the research stuff, maybe you could help me out. I did a quick search on Torn Labrums to see if this is common among smaller players. Trying to see if his size could be a contributing factor to his injury. And what I found among NFL players and recently-drafted NFL players who have suffered such an injury:

    Doug Martin, 5'9 223 lbs
    Malike Hooker, 6'1, 205
    Reshad Jones, 6'1, 214 lbx
    Ed Reid, 5'11 205 lbs
    Kyle Long, 6'6 313 lbs
    Vic Beasley, 6'2 236 lbs
    Robert Griffen, 6'2, 223 lbs
    Andrew Luck, 6'4, 234 lbs
    Jay Cutler, 6'3, 233 lbs
    Takk Mckinley, 6'2, 249 lbs

    Interestingly, it seems that this particular injury is pretty rare among smaller players. In fact, with my admittedly limited search, it appears that this is more common with taller and heavier players.

    Do you have any theories on this? Anything that might shed light on it?

    This is weird, but when I looked up NFL running backs and foot injuries, I again wasn't able to find any sort of correlation with smaller size being a common thread. So I expanded my search to just NFL running back injuries in general where careers were cut shorty, as well as those who have missed the most time in recent seasons. And what I found was actually the opposite. It seems that the vast majority of running backs suffering significant injury are bigger.

    And I could really use some help here. I'm assuming that I just must not be good at finding this epidemic of injuries to smaller backs.

    Notable career-ending (bigger backs):
    Earl Campbell
    Bo Jackson
    Terell Davis
    William Andrews
    Billy Sims
    Ickey Woods
    Barry Foster
    Jamal Anderson
    Kijana Carter
    Priest Holmes
    Robert Edwards
    Deuce McCallister
    LaMont Jordan
    Brian Westbrook
    Clinton Portis
    Arian Foster

    Notable career-ending "smaller" backs:
    Garrison Hearst
    Olandis Gary
    Cadilack Williams
    William Andrews

    Significant, non career-threatening, bigger:
    Eddie Lacey
    Andre Ellington
    Adrian Peterson

    Significant, non career-threatening, smaller:
    Danny Woodhead
    Thomas Rawls
  4. Blaming Barry Well-Known Member

    I beg to differ on that. How many times have we seen scrap heap to mediocre running backs run gang busters behind a great line and then go elsewhere behind a piss-poor to average line and disappear never to be heard from again? Or vice versa where a mediocre RB does nothing and then goes to a team with great line and all of sudden looks like an NFL RB. Both scenarios happen every single year. I GUARANTEE you put Zach Zenner in LeGarrette Blunt's situation last season and he puts up very similar numbers.
  5. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Don't change the subject. You are the one who said he was not touched. You didn't watch the play did you? He was spun around twice. On the second spin he was tackled by the LB and got up limping. I blame his foot injury on his small size and lack of long speed. Very big people can catch this guy.
  6. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    No ZZ is not as good as LeGarrette Blount, for goodness sake BB.

    I guess the unintelligent needs a definition of NFL Caliber RB. NFL caliber RBs can create positive yardage on their own. NFL caliber RBs normally have more yards after contact when compared to the average RB. NFL Caliber RBs are rarely tackled by just one person. NFL Caliber RBs can break 60 to 70 yard runs due to good long speed. NFL caliber RB can take the pounding of 200 to 300 carries/season without serious medical problems, in other words, he is strong enough to take it.

    The average NFL Offensive Line will provide 4.0 yards rushing/carry with an average RB. NFL Caliber RBs with the same OL will average above 4.0 yards/carry.
  7. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Now you are becoming condescending Rusty. If you really want to go where you are going, then you need to stop cherry picking and do a complete analysis with all RBs in the NFL. The analysis need to be performed over a minimum time frame that is calculated statistically to ensure accuracy of the results and proper population size. So go ahead smart guy show me what you got.

    BTW you also need to calculate the mode, median, and mean average of height and weight of NFL RBs prior to performing accuracy and population size statistics. I believe 2 standard deviations should be sufficient. This will tell you if small guys in the NFL are statistically significant in the NFL RB population.

    Here is what I know and it is basic physics. A larger mass, moving at the same speed, and impacting a smaller mass will always deflect a smaller mass a larger distance and that leaves the smaller mass at the disadvantage. The disadvantage is the smaller mass will feel a more concentrated force from the impact. That is the reason a smaller guy is more susceptible to injury because of the more concentrated force. Comprende?
  8. TheDane Well-Known Member

    I GUARANTEE that you are clueless. There are 2 teams actively looking at Blount, the Giants and the Lions. Why would the Lions be looking if they already have a younger version on their team? And how many times have we seen this scenario you speak of? LOL, well you're the one who threw it out there so how about some examples? This is going to be fun.
  9. badnews3123 Well-Known Member

    I'm not changing the subject, I believe he was the one that said it happened on a cut. Maybe I'm wrong. Regardless if your argument is that it got hurt when he got tackled, I would call that a pretty freak injury. How many guys injure their foot being tackled? If he was 220 is his foot stronger? And again your running through contact argument is hilarious when using that run as your example.

    Hes 5'9 205, he's not that small. Long speed does nothing for him on that run, he had to make multiple miss right away and the guy that slowed him up was a DB and Williamson finished the tackle.
  10. TheDane Well-Known Member

    Nice chart on CB's...[IMG]
  11. Felix True Fan

    Wow...nice find
  12. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    I never made the assertion that small running backs are more susceptible to injury. So I have no statements to try and support and no real skin in this game. But I will take your unwillingness to mean your conclusions are more "hunch" than they are based on real data.

    Okay, so then where do surface area, center of gravity, and playing style factor in? Do you agree that a smaller running back has a smaller radius with which to be hit? And do you agree that the low center of gravity would make it more difficult to tackle?

    And can you agree that a person/animal that is harder to tackle will experience fewer violent collisions? And that being lower to the ground exposes less of a player's vulnerable tissue? That his hips and knees would be less likely to experience as much direct impact?

    I'm asking you this because you seem to be very smart when it comes to science. And I like hearing the input of smart people. :D
  13. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    Okay, so we at least have a benchmark here to start with. 4.0 yards per carry is what you believe makes for an average, NFL-caliber running back. Feel free to correct.

    So now considering LaGarette Blount averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season, does that mean he isn't an NFL caliber running back? Or does that mean the Patriot's offensive line was below average last season?

    Also, considering that Theo Riddick averaged the exact same yards per carry (3.9), and each broke off runs of 40 yards or more last season, does this mean that neither Theo Riddick or LaGarette are "NFL caliber?" Does this also mean the Lions offensive line is equal to the Patriots? And if not, how much of a curve would you grade them on? Would 3.9 yards per carry behind the Lions' line be the equivalent of 4.2 yards per carry behind the Patriots? And if so, does that mean Riddick is the better back?
  14. Blaming Barry Well-Known Member

    I don't think size is a good indicator of whether a RB is "injury prone". There are too many other factors, including flat out luck. I mean sure, a tiny guy like Dri Archer is probably more prone to get injured if he were out there for 80% of the offensive snaps, but you're talking about a 170 lb feather.

    I think the best thing to look at is running style and ability to fall down the right way. I don't think Abdullah's running style raises any red flags and I haven't seen any indication that he doesn't know how to fall.

    Really all we have to go on is the two surgeries in 2 years, which as badnews pointed out, is cause for concern, but not a reason to jump ship and call him a china doll.
  15. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club


    Source: Pro Football Focus
  16. millenbacker !! JUST BREW IT !!

    Sign Blount and resign Boldin and our offense might be pretty exciting. Then it's a matter of the defense stepping up.
  17. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Now this chart I would have to take with a very large grain of salt. C'mon being able to estimate yards after contact by hundreths of a yard. These guys better have calibrated eyeballs, because we are talking 0.36 inches, bullshit. This would be a very subjective stat with best accuracy at 0.5 yards.
  18. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    You ask questions that are not pertinent to this discussion and then expect me to perform the research? Your questions are also based on assumption and assumption is nothing more than opinion. Opinion can be refuted. You are basically trying to change the subject to your argument. So fuck off I am not playing your mind games.

    My argument as stated above is based on fact.
    Newton's second law of motion only deals with mass and acceleration which equals velocity, when incremented by time.
    Area, center of gravity, playing style and radius has nothing to do with the argument.

    As stated above a smaller mass will be displaced further when impacting a larger mass traveling at the same speed. In other words a smaller man is at disadvantage because of displacement/larger force applied. Larger displacement/force applied to the smaller body is more likely to result in injury. This can not be refuted.

    You are being condescending and trying to bait. Playing mental games and I find that insulting.
  19. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    That is a good chart. Tankersley and Tabor both look real good. Tabor was the best in most categories I like it.
  20. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    This is what I mean by playing mind fucking games, Rusty. You answer the above questions in another fucking thread, asshole.

  21. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    It's not a mind game. I'm asking you questions. About football.

    I've noticed that you get somewhat defensive when data is brought up in the context of a football discussion.

    What is it about questions related to data that brings your defenses up? Do you feel like you're on a witness stand and a prosecuting attorney is drilling you with his DNA evidence or something?
  22. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    Bullshit, your tone towards me is disrespectful. To me, you ask a bunch of pussy ass stupid fucking questions and then when speaking others, you answer these same questions with data that informative and to the point. So fuck you.
  23. Rusty Hilger VP, Wrist Cutter's Club

    I see. When people bring up data that contradicts your assertions, do you often take that as a violent or aggressive act? As if it were a personal attack or an affront on you?
  24. Huntermsu Mr. Negativity

  25. Liongeezer Ornery Old Fart

    And where did you contradict the fact stated, that smaller backs are more vulnerable to injury due to basic physics?

    Just to answer your question above; Blount beats Riddick as a runner hands down. Riddick beats Blount as a pass receiver hands down. Since running the ball is the discussion, then Blount in this instance would be the better complimentary RB.

    Blount 2016 season
    299 carries, 18.7 att/game, 18 TDs, 67 first downs, IOW 22. 4 percent of his carries extended Patriot drives.
    The Patriots were 4th in the NFL for 3rd down conversions rushed for 109 first downs

    Riddick 2016 season, Injured during 10th game requiring 2 wrist surgeries. out for season
    92 carries, 9.2 att/game, 1 TD rushing, 19 first downs, IOW 20.6 percent of his carries extended Lions drives. According to these rushing stats he is not NFL caliber and barely serviceable.
    The Lions were 8th in the NFL for 3rd down conversions rushed for 76 first downs

    When all rushing stats are presented you can clearly see that Blount is the better rusher. You post above that both average 3.9 yard/carry making it seem they are equal and then ask stupid questions like I am an adolescent that is suppose to do book report. WRONG! This was not a discussion on your part. It was patronizing. You can be passive aggressive all you want, but I know better.

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